Study:
Arctic warming at twice
the global rate
Species,
including polar bears, may go extinct as ice melts
Monday,
November 8, 2004 Posted: 3:29 PM EST (2029 GMT
OSLO,
Norway (Reuters) -- Global warming is heating the Arctic almost twice as
fast as the rest of the planet in a thaw that threatens millions of
livelihoods and could wipe out polar bears by 2100, an eight-nation report
said on Monday.
OSLO, Norway (Reuters)
-- Global warming is heating the Arctic almost twice as fast as the rest
of the planet in a thaw that threatens millions of livelihoods and could
wipe out polar bears by 2100, an eight-nation report said on Monday.
The biggest survey to
date of the Arctic climate, by 250 scientists, said the accelerating melt
could be a foretaste of wider disruptions from a build-up of human
emissions of heat-trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere.
The "Arctic
climate is now warming rapidly and much larger changes are
projected," according to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA),
funded by the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden,
Norway and Finland.
Arctic temperatures
are rising at almost twice the global average and could leap 4-7 Celsius
(7-13 Fahrenheit) by 2100, roughly twice the global average projected by
U.N. reports. Siberia and Alaska have already warmed by 2-3 C since the
1950s.
Possible benefits like
more productive fisheries, easier access to oil and gas deposits or
trans-Arctic shipping routes would be outweighed by threats to indigenous
peoples and the habitats of animals and plants.
Sea ice around the
North Pole, for instance, could almost disappear in summer by the end of
the century. The extent of the ice has shrunk by 15 percent to 20 percent
in the past 30 years.
"Polar bears are
unlikely to survive as a species if there is an almost complete loss of
summer sea-ice cover," the report said. On land, creatures like
lemmings, caribou, reindeer and snowy owls are being squeezed north into a
narrower range.
Fossil fuels blamed
The report mainly
blames the melt on gases from fossil fuels burned in cars, factories and
power plants. The Arctic warms faster than the global average because dark
ground and water, once exposed, traps more heat than reflective snow and
ice.
Klaus Toepfer, head of
the U.N. Environment Programme, said the Arctic changes were an early
warning. "What happens there is of concern for everyone because
Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications," he
said.
And the melting of
glaciers is expected to raise world sea levels by about 10 cm (4 inches)
by the end of the century.
Many of the four
million people in the Arctic are suffering. Buildings from Russia to
Canada have collapsed because of subsidence linked to thawing permafrost
that also destabilises oil pipelines, roads and airports.
Indigenous hunters are
falling through thinning ice and say that prey from seals to whales is
harder to find. Rising levels of ultra-violet radiation may cause cancers.
Changes under way in
the Arctic "present serious challenges to human health and food
security, and possibly even (to) the survival of some cultures," the
report says.
Farming could benefit
in some areas, while more productive forests are moving north on to former
tundra. "There are not just negative consequences, there will be new
opportunities too," said Paal Prestrud, vice-chair of ACIA.
Scientists will meet
in Iceland this week to discuss the report. Foreign ministers from Arctic
nations are due to meet in Iceland on November 24, but diplomats say they
are deeply split with Washington least willing to make drastic action.
President George W.
Bush pulled the United States, the world's top polluter, out of the
126-nation Kyoto protocol in 2001, arguing its curbs on greenhouse gas
emissions were too costly and unfairly excluded developing nations.
"Kyoto is only a
first step," said Norwegian Environment Minister Knut Hareide, a
strong backer of Kyoto. "The clear message from this report is that
Kyoto is not enough. We must reduce emissions much more in coming
decades."
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