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Climate change over
the next 20 years could result in a global
catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars
and natural disasters..
* Secret report
warns of rioting and nuclear war
* Britain will be
'Siberian' in less than 20 years
* Threat to the
world is greater than terrorism
A secret report,
suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by
The Observer, warns that major European cities
will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is
plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020.
Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and
widespread rioting will erupt across the world.
The document
predicts that abrupt climate change could bring
the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries
develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure
dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The
threat to global stability vastly eclipses that
of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its
contents.
'Disruption and
conflict will be endemic features of life,'
concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again,
warfare would define human life.'
The findings will
prove humiliating to the Bush administration,
which has repeatedly denied that climate change
even exists. Experts said that they will also
make unsettling reading for a President who has
insisted national defence is a priority.
The report was
commissioned by influential Pentagon defence
adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held
considerable sway on US military thinking over
the past three decades. He was the man behind a
sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the
American military under Defence Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld.
Climate change
'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate
to a US national security concern', say the
authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and
former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell
Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based
Global Business Network.
An imminent
scenario of catastrophic climate change is
'plausible and would challenge United States
national security in ways that should be
considered immediately', they conclude. As early
as next year widespread flooding by a rise in
sea levels will create major upheaval for
millions.
Last week the Bush
administration came under heavy fire from a
large body of respected scientists who claimed
that it cherry-picked science to suit its policy
agenda and suppressed studies that it did not
like. Jeremy Symons, a former whistleblower at
the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said
that suppression of the report for four months
was a further example of the White House trying
to bury the threat of climate change.
Senior
climatologists, however, believe that their
verdicts could prove the catalyst in forcing
Bush to accept climate change as a real and
happening phenomenon. They also hope it will
convince the United States to sign up to global
treaties to reduce the rate of climatic change.
A group of eminent
UK scientists recently visited the White House
to voice their fears over global warming, part
of an intensifying drive to get the US to treat
the issue seriously. Sources have told The
Observer that American officials appeared
extremely sensitive about the issue when faced
with complaints that America's public stance
appeared increasingly out of touch.
One even alleged
that the White House had written to complain
about some of the comments attributed to
Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief
scientific adviser, after he branded the
President's position on the issue as
indefensible.
Among those
scientists present at the White House talks were
Professor John Schellnhuber, former chief
environmental adviser to the German government
and head of the UK's leading group of climate
scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research. He said that the Pentagon's
internal fears should prove the 'tipping point'
in persuading Bush to accept climatic change.
Sir John Houghton,
former chief executive of the Meteorological
Office - and the first senior figure to liken
the threat of climate change to that of
terrorism - said: 'If the Pentagon is sending
out that sort of message, then this is an
important document indeed.'
Bob Watson, chief
scientist for the World Bank and former chair of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
added that the Pentagon's dire warnings could no
longer be ignored.
'Can Bush ignore
the Pentagon? It's going be hard to blow off
this sort of document. Its hugely embarrassing.
After all, Bush's single highest priority is
national defence. The Pentagon is no wacko,
liberal group, generally speaking it is
conservative. If climate change is a threat to
national security and the economy, then he has
to act. There are two groups the Bush
Administration tend to listen to, the oil lobby
and the Pentagon,' added Watson.
'You've got a
President who says global warming is a hoax, and
across the Potomac river you've got a Pentagon
preparing for climate wars. It's pretty scary
when Bush starts to ignore his own government on
this issue,' said Rob Gueterbock of Greenpeace.
Already, according
to Randall and Schwartz, the planet is carrying
a higher population than it can sustain. By 2020
'catastrophic' shortages of water and energy
supply will become increasingly harder to
overcome, plunging the planet into war. They
warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions
brought widespread crop failure, famine, disease
and mass migration of populations that could
soon be repeated.
Randall told The
Observer that the potential ramifications of
rapid climate change would create global chaos.
'This is depressing stuff,' he said. 'It is a
national security threat that is unique because
there is no enemy to point your guns at and we
have no control over the threat.'
Randall added that
it was already possibly too late to prevent a
disaster happening. 'We don't know exactly where
we are in the process. It could start tomorrow
and we would not know for another five years,'
he said.
'The consequences
for some nations of the climate change are
unbelievable. It seems obvious that cutting the
use of fossil fuels would be worthwhile.'
So dramatic are the
report's scenarios, Watson said, that they may
prove vital in the US elections. Democratic
frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept
climate change as a real problem. Scientists
disillusioned with Bush's stance are threatening
to make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in
his campaign.
The fact that
Marshall is behind its scathing findings will
aid Kerry's cause. Marshall, 82, is a Pentagon
legend who heads a secretive think-tank
dedicated to weighing risks to national security
called the Office of Net Assessment. Dubbed
'Yoda' by Pentagon insiders who respect his vast
experience, he is credited with being behind the
Department of Defence's push on
ballistic-missile defence.
Symons, who left
the EPA in protest at political interference,
said that the suppression of the report was a
further instance of the White House trying to
bury evidence of climate change. 'It is yet
another example of why this government should
stop burying its head in the sand on this
issue.'
Symons said the
Bush administration's close links to
high-powered energy and oil companies was vital
in understanding why climate change was received
sceptically in the Oval Office. 'This
administration is ignoring the evidence in order
to placate a handful of large energy and oil
companies,' he added.
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